Our latest Roadmap explores the potential economic and financial policies of the two candidates in the US Presidential Election. We would regard a Trump victory as challenging for financial markets if, as he has suggested, he curtails Fed independence, forcibly repatriates many migrant workers and raises tariffs significantly. While tax cuts in his first term were clearly supportive for US equities, the large US budget deficit may curtail equally material moves in this context. We would expect Harris to be continuity-Biden in some respects, but see risks in spending commitments not being matched by prospective tax rises. In addition, some possible policies – e.g. price controls – seem to be economically incoherent electoral gimmicks. If enough of these sorts of policy were implemented, the economic costs would escalate. We also expect heightened volatility post-election, particularly if the result were to be contested.
Read the full Investment Roadmap here.
